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Trivium China Flash Talk: Evergrande on the brink -- where to from here? - Shared screen with speaker view
Joao Braganca
07:14
Thx for the time everyone
Michael Hart
28:25
How close do you think we are/were to having an (annual) tax on privately owned residences and do you think defaults with RE developers and potentially falling property prices (most people's major asset) will cause the gov't to delay tax implementation?
Ami de Chapeaurouge
31:38
1,300 projects in 278 Chinese cities, 1.6 million homebuyers left in the lurch to be precise.
Matthew Schrader
32:23
hey dinny/Andrew, thanks for putting this together, you guys are great and appreciate you doing this. question as someone who hasn't been following this as closely as you guys: part of the issue with lehman was all the contingent risk that banks didn't understand they had on their balance sheets.trying to disguise one's financial liabilities has been the national sport for big PRC financial and real estate companies for a decade or more now: despite the fact that beijing has done multiple rounds of serious nationwide audits, how sure are we that we really understand how much debt is owed by whom where?if there's big gaps in understanding it may not necessarily result in lehman style collapse, but will probably make the cleanup much longer and messier than it would be otherwise
Daniel de Blocq
34:20
the 3 red lines are : liability to asset ratio less than 70%, net gearing ratio less than 100%, and cash to short term debt ratio of more than 1x
John Holden
34:38
Do we know what percentage of prepayments is equity versus mortgages?
Assaf Mar - Or
37:23
Could this lead to some regulatory changes wrt WMPs?
Ami de Chapeaurouge
47:30
Ami de Chapeaurouge: They will avoid onshore defaults because that and they would lead to cross-defaults; in distinction, offshore defaults do not lead to cross-defaults in the PRC HY bond world.
Brendan Fugate
49:56
the mountains are high and the emporer is far away
James Wong
50:46
The top has policies. The bottom has procedures.
James Wong
52:25
上有政策,下有对策
Jason Ye
52:59
NOMURA: Not much investment in China among housing & real estate companies for Japan. Toto has almost 30% profit exposure to China.
rking@levyforecast.com
55:06
If part of the Evergrande situation is an inevitable result of past policies, how long before faith is shaken in the ability of future policy to fix the problems?
Haofen Guo
01:02:16
great talk, thank you!
Joe Li
01:02:29
Thank you! This was great.
William Spiers
01:02:41
Thanks
Sabine Gusbeth
01:02:41
Thank you!
Lucia Toth
01:02:42
Thank you!
Dana Heide
01:02:45
Thanks!
Assaf Mar - Or
01:02:49
Thank you very much!
Jason Ye
01:02:54
Thanks